I have a question, do you think the sixth Middle East war will be fought? The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be hot, what does the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have to do with us, and what are the chess players behind the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, today’s article will go from why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is happening to a historical review of the Middle East wars to the final impact on the real world.
A very important little thing , probably many people did not pay attention to the clock dialed back 24 hours before the Hamas raid on Israel, the overwhelming big news flooded the front pages of important media outlets around the world, Saudi Arabia is willing to increase oil production to reach a Saudi Israel agreement, the price of oil plummeted by nearly 10% in two days, this news is very informative, and can even be said to be the direct trigger for this dramatic conflict.
The Saudis have told the White House that they are willing to raise production early next year to win U.S. Congressional support for a Saudi-Israeli deal if oil prices are still high. According to this agreement Saudi Arabia will take the lead in recognizing Israel will normalize relations, the United States will give the Saudis a great benefit.
Why this headline is so explosive, so explosive that Hamas has gone out of its way to launch a hot war raid, let’s first unpack the three ostensible protagonists in the news：
First Saudi Arabia, second Israel, and third the United States.
Saudi Arabia in recent years has done a lot of great things, in the international arena of influence is getting stronger and stronger, the first is not to increase production of oil to push up the price of oil to make the Americans very difficult, on the one hand, inflation can not come down, on the other hand, it is the strategic oil reserves can not be replenished late reservoirs. The second is to embrace China, and China signed a large number of cooperation agreements, and even directly into the Hong Kong stock and a-share market for strategic capital. The third is in China’s help and Iran reached a century of reconciliation, Saudi Arabia, all the actions are pointing to one thing, it wants to be the leader of the Middle East Arab world, Crown Prince Salman Saudi Arabia actually in charge of a series of actions to let the world stunned, only this time Bin Salman has a little bit of haste, after Iran to deal with the Saudis continue to promote the normalization of relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, if the reconciliation with Israel, then the The Middle East world and Israel’s grudge probability is about to enter a new stage.
So what are the demands of Saudi Arabia? It wants the United States to provide it with the latest weaponry, complete security, and most importantly, to build civil and military programs. Of course, this is a surface, and there is a great possibility that Saudi Arabia’s final goal is to possess nuclear weapons. Let’s think about what Saudi Arabia would have to pay if it reconciled with Israel, its seemingly greatest enemy, and the United States supported it with nuclear weapons technology. We can start with three points.
The first is to help Israel and the Arab forces to ease relations, to help the Americans to control the price of oil to control inflation, in the first two months the Saudis, by teaming up with Russia to cut production, hardened the price of oil by $20 a barrel, so that the price of oil in Europe has also risen a number of times, it is to show to the United States, especially the Democrat Party behind Biden, next year’s presidential election, the economy, inflation and diplomacy are Biden valued the core of the card.
Second, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced at the UN General Debate Conference on September 22 that he would reach a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia, and that reaching a peace agreement would fast-track the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict and would encourage other Arab countries to normalize their relations with Israel, as well as promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and would promote Judaism-Islam. Jerusalem and Mecca, and wider reconciliation between the descendants of Isaac and the descendants of Shema.
Finally, Netanyahu called on us to bless the new Middle East and turn the land that was once filled with conflict and chaos into a field of prosperity and peace. After Netanyahu’s second term in office in 2020, he sought to promote the century agreement and reconcile with Saudi Arabia, which led to a deterioration of the United States’ image in the Arab world. In order to regain balance, Biden ignored Israel for a while after taking office, and it was more than a month before he called Netanyahu. Combined with Netanyahu’s failure in the 2022 election, the situation between Israel and Palestine has been stuck in a stalemate.
But after returning to power in 2023, Netanyahu continued to encroach on Palestine, even entering the Temple Mount in the Old City of Jerusalem, which is considered by Muslims to be an “Al-Haram Al-Sharif”, triggering an outcry from the Palestinians and the Arab world. In essence, there are only two things that Israel wants, one is to empty Palestine to realize the ultimate goal of Zionism, and the other is to coexist peacefully with the Arab world and achieve stable economic development.
Why is the US suddenly joining the fray to broker the reconciliation of the century between Saudi Arabia and Israel? In addition to wanting the Saudis to bring down oil prices there are two other ideas hidden behind the White House’s intentions.
One is India’s g20 summit Biden and Modi, Europeans and Arab leaders announced the joint establishment of a super corridor across the Arabian Peninsula and Israel can be connected to Europe and India, this “visionary corridor” will promote trade, communications, energy, benefit 2 billion people, of course, essentially to dismantle the Chinese Belt and Road policy.
Another is that China’s strong performance this year has enabled Saudi Arabia and Iran to achieve a super-century reconciliation, which has been widely praised and praised internationally. The White House is also very nervous. In the past few years, it has suppressed Iran and reconciled with Saudi Arabia. The Arab world has the potential to rise as a new world level, which will impact the control of the United States and the dollar. The US government needs to maintain hegemony in the Middle East, so it also needs to make a huge reconciliation to strengthen its influence and control in the Arab world, improve its reputation, suppress inflation, compete with China, all for the 2024 election. This is the premise of the Democratic Party’s current behavior logic.
By this point we can basically figure out what the players on the stage have done, promised and expected in the run-up to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and what the players in the shadows below the surface are doing with their fists in the air. Behind the scenes there are at least three parts to influence and redirect the world timeline forward.
Part I: The U.S. Republican Party
The Democrats are pushing for “Saudi-Israel reconciliation” to lower oil prices, reduce inflation, maintain a strong economy, and maintain fiscal spending. The most important thing is to use Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China to achieve a tactical rapprochement with China in 2023, so that Biden can spare more energy to deal with the domestic situation
The Senate Majority Leader, senior Democrat Schumer, led a bipartisan group of senators who arrived in Shanghai on the 7th to start a new trip to China, in addition to further high-level communication, Schumer also needs to do two things, one is Micron, Schumer’s sponsors have promised to invest $100 billion for him in his district in New York State, so he needs to go to China to mediate the relationship, so Micron Technology can do business normally.
The other is fentanyl, Schumer’s district is flooded with fentanyl, this new age drug is devouring the U.S., he would like to get China’s help to improve the ability to control fentanyl, but the Republican Party certainly can not let these happen, in addition to the original Democratic Speaker McCarthy kicked out of the Republicans are hoping for a conflict in the Middle East.
There are three reasons. The first is to raise oil prices and inflation, putting pressure on the U.S. economy and putting Biden in trouble, and then the Republican Party will make America great again. Second, energy groups are the traditional vote base and sponsor of the Republican Party. High oil prices will only further enhance the financial strength of the Republican Party. The third is that high oil prices can improve Russia’s economic strength and viability. The Republican Party, especially Trump, is relatively close to Russia.
Part II: Iran
Iran saw the opportunity of the United States’ weakness, and may have acquiesced and fueled Hamas’s attack behind the scenes. Half of the energy of the United States is on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, and half of its energy is on containing China. Even if the sixth one does happen at this time, The possibility that the United States will end the war in the Middle East directly is also very low. What’s more, in order to support Ukraine, the United States asked Israel to send about 4.5 billion U.S. dollars of weapons, equipment, ammunition, etc. in stock to the front line first. For a while, it would not be able to support Israel. Strategically, Iran seized the initiative.
Secondly, on October 6, a large-scale rally was organized in Gaza against the Arab countries’ efforts to open a dialogue and achieve reconciliation with Israel, and Hamas and Jihad achieved this strategic goal through violent means. Saudi Arabia, having been taken by Iran to the politically correct heights of the Arab world, was compelled by the Saudi Foreign Ministry to come out and strongly condemn Israel’s prolonged illegal occupation and repeated provocations, and to call on both sides to exercise restraint. The first half of the statement was said publicly the second half was addressed to Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a statement that risking the normalization of relations with the Zionists would be hurtful, and that the Arab world should not make this mistake, but of course secretly there is also the smallest thought of not wanting the Saudis to acquire nuclear capability, after all, they are all vying for leadership in the Middle East.
Part III: Russia
Russia Putin recently emphasized many times in public meetings: Ukraine if there is no western weekly billions of dollars of aid war has long been over, so walk the Middle East this chess game for Russia only benefits no harm, and Russia’s close relationship with Iran in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Russia and Ukraine continue to provide him with weapons and ammunition, then Iran this time behind the planning of the project of the Russian Federation is naturally also absolutely in favor.
Secondly, Russia also joined forces with Saudi Arabia to cut production together to push up oil prices, indicating that in the Middle East chess game Russia and China are the same as the two sides of the balance does not unilaterally bet, after all, who is really the leader of the Middle East also have to compete, but there is a benefit of things Russia will continue to do.
The last is to break down the pressure, the United States is currently the financial strength of the United States, taking into account the 45 days after the U.S. government to collapse again, as well as the recent arrears of payments to Ukraine, Congress has been noisy, the Middle East and then out of the hot war in the United States will be how to choose? At least Russia and Ukraine’s positive pressure will be reduced, which is undoubtedly the biggest positive for Russia, if the West relaxes a lot of Russia may even once again achieve a large strategic initiative, low-cost high yield.
The Middle East wars, also known as the Arab-Israeli wars, are said to be a total of five wars of conflict between Israel and Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and other Arab countries since the founding of the state of Israel The Middle East wars were essentially proxy wars between the Soviet-supported Arab world and the U.S.-supported Israel. According to Judeo-Christian and Islamic teachings, the Land of Israel is the Promised Land of the Jews, and this land of milk and honey is indeed a very different climate from the entire Middle East.
Historically, the Jews in Israel have been annihilated and ruled by many historical empires many times, so there is a lot of historical hatred and conflict. In 1897, the first World Jewish Congress was held in Switzerland. Theodore was elected chairman and began to engage in Jewish restoration. Nationalism is preparing to restore the country, and the location has been chosen in Palestine, the promised land. The British took the lead in supporting the restoration of the Jewish state and issued the “Balfour Declaration” in exchange for financial support during World War I. The United States, which was a British colony at the time, especially when there were millions of Jews in the United States, was supported by everyone from the president to the public. This declaration, although there were already a large number of Arabs living in Palestine at that time, the strong intervention of Europe and the United States caused Palestine to fall into division. During the Nazi persecution of the Jews, a large number of European Jews poured into Palestine, which had a huge impact in a short period of time and caused national and ethnic groups. , huge misunderstandings and conflicts between religions.
In 1947, the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181 agreed to establish two Arab and Israeli states in Palestine, and allocated 57% of the land west of the Jordan River to Jews, who accounted for 32% of the population. The root of the conflict was thus laid. The first war in the Middle East broke out in 1948, the second year after the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Israel called it a war of independence and the Arabs called it a catastrophe. Later, large-scale hot wars were carried out in 1956, 1967, 1973 and 1982, especially in 1973. In the fourth war, the Arab world launched a surprise attack on the most joyful Jewish holiday, “Torah Day”, which deeply shocked Israel. It suffered successive losses for several weeks. Later, the United States reversed the situation.
The Arab world failed miserably that day happens to be October 6, turn the head of the Arabs will vent their anger on the Americans, the price of oil from $3 to $12 rose four times, opened the world’s first oil crisis and triggered the U.S. stagflation for nearly a decade, the national economy began to regress, so this time the sixth Middle East war will break out? How will the war affect U.S. inflation, oil and gold?
The U.S. is now riding a tiger, Schumer, a Democratic Party bigwig who has only left the U.S. twice in his life to visit China, the essence is that the Democratic Party, which is backed by finance and technology, needs China’s help at a critical time before the election, including a possible meeting of heads of state at APEC in November, all in order not to flip with China.
But McCarthy’s defeat puts the Democratic Party in jeopardy, the Speaker of the House of Representatives will decide the next 45 days and next year’s economic situation in the U.S. If the extremist Republican Party in favor of Trump came to power, 45 days after the U.S. government shutdown will greatly increase the risk of, and very likely to compress next year’s fiscal spending so that the U.S. economy recession.
One of the reasons for the strong U.S. economy this year is the massive fiscal expenditure. If the extremists come to power, the restrictions on China, especially technology semiconductors, will be even stronger and tougher, because in this way the Republican Party can get enough people who hate China to support next year’s election, and if If the Republican Party comes to power and drastically reduces fiscal spending, aid to Ukraine will be extremely shortened.
Considering that the financial power of the United States is mainly in the hands of the House of Representatives, the struggle behind this war in the US government is more interesting and has far-reaching impact. Biden is under great pressure. The oil price that plummeted for two days in early October is likely to return upward. , because of the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it is obvious that oil prices are unlikely to fall in the short term. Then Saudi Arabia’s appeal to the United States will be significantly weakened, and the expectations and motivation for increasing oil production next year will be insufficient. Furthermore, if the war breaks out and spreads, on the one hand, it will affect the supply stability of oil-producing areas, and on the other hand, the Arab world may repeat the 1973 oil crisis. The script of the crisis once again punishes the Western world with high oil prices.
Finally, let’s talk about gold. During the Bretton crisis in 1973, gold finally soared from US$100 per ounce to a maximum of US$800. The collapse of the US dollar gold system prompted the beginning of the petrodollar. In conflicts and crises, only gold is the world’s most valuable asset. In the future uncertainty and instability of currency in circulation, we need to pay more attention to our own assets and investment direction. Stability is the most important factor at present.